ALP 5.8%
Incumbent MP
Jess Pugh, since 2017.
Geography
Brisbane. Mount Ommaney covers the southwestern Brisbane suburbs of Corinda, Darra, Oxley, Jindalee, Sinnamon Park, Mount Ommaney, Jamboree Heights, Middle Park, Westlake and Riverhills.
History
The seat of Mount Ommaney has existed since the 1992 election, and it has generally gone with the party of government.
The ALP’s Peter Pyke won the seat in 1992. He lost in 1995 to the Liberal Party’s Bob Harper.
Harper lost in 1998 to Labor candidate Julie Attwood. She was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009.
Attwood retired in 2012, and her seat was won by LNP candidate Tarnya Smith with a 21.3% swing.
Smith was re-elected in 2015 by a very slim margin. Mount Ommaney was redrawn as a notional Labor seat in 2017, and was won at that election by Labor’s Jess Pugh.
Candidates
Assessment
Mount Ommaney is a marginal seat, although there are many others which are more likely to fall.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jess Pugh | Labor | 13,215 | 42.7 | +2.6 |
| Tarnya Smith | Liberal National | 11,270 | 36.4 | -8.7 |
| Jenny Mulkearns | Greens | 4,211 | 13.6 | +2.5 |
| Ian Eugarde | One Nation | 2,250 | 7.3 | +7.3 |
| Informal | 1,088 | 3.4 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jess Pugh | Labor | 17,255 | 55.8 | +4.8 |
| Tarnya Smith | Liberal National | 13,691 | 44.2 | -4.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Ommaney have been divided into three areas: Corinda in the north-east, Oxley in the south-east and Jindalee in the west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.5% in Jindalee to 62.2% in Oxley. The LNP narrowly won a majority in the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.9% in Jindalee to 19.6% in Corinda.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Jindalee | 12.9 | 56.5 | 9,812 | 31.7 |
| Oxley | 15.7 | 62.2 | 6,328 | 20.4 |
| Corinda | 19.6 | 61.4 | 2,836 | 9.2 |
| Pre-poll | 9.6 | 49.4 | 7,398 | 23.9 |
| Other votes | 15.1 | 51.9 | 4,572 | 14.8 |
Election results in Mount Ommaney at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
One seat that should be more winnable for the LNP but isn’t this time is Mount Ommaney.
Jess Pugh has been a standout local MP for Labor in this term, I think she’ll have a swing in her favour. She is also next door neighbour to Annastacia, so that popularity should flow over a bit.
One of my godsons has told me that this area has descended down the socio -economic ladder since the floods. Something to do with a real estate fall in prices due to insurance issues. If so that should ensure no change politically.
It was leaked from LNP internal polling in June, that the LNP was behind Labor 58 – 42 in this seat. I view this seat somewhat like Mansfield that it won’t budge. I haven’t seen too many announcements from the LNP in this seat either. May be a sign of their waning enthusiasm for this seat via the polling. Labor to retain.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
September Prediction: Labor retain.
Prediction: ALP Retain
Labor retain
ALP keep